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Game Previews & Recaps

Game Notes & Preview: PC at Xavier 2/8/14 #pcbb

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Where: Cintas Center – Cincinnati, OH

When: 3:00pm

How: Fox Sports 1/WEEI 103.7 FM

Game Notes

  • Including their game on January 25th at the Dunk, the all time series is now tied 2-2.
  • Cotton’s 32 points on Tuesday night were a Big East career high while his overall career high is 34 points scored against Bryant in December 2011.
  • Xavier is 1st in the Big East in rebounding margin and narrowly outrebounded the Friars in their last meeting 40-38.
  • Bryce Cotton is 2nd in the Big East in scoring (21.3 ppg) and Semaj Christon is 5th (17.1 ppg)
  • Bryce Cotton is 1st in the Big East in assists (5.8 apg) and Dee Davis is 2nd (4.7 apg)
  • Matt Stainbrook is 2nd in the Big East in rebounds (8.9 rpb), Kadeem Batts is 4th (7.7 rpg) and LaDontae Henton is 5th (7.4 rpg).

Kenpom InstaGamePrep

Note: Rankings reflect Conference Games Only

When Providence has the ball

Category Providence
Offense		 Xavier
Defense		 D-I Avg
Efficiency 107.6 4 110.6 9 104.2
Avg. Poss Length 19.4 0 18.4 0 17.8
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 47.6 6 52.2 8 49.5
Turnover %: 18.0 7 13.8 10 18.5
Off. Reb. %: 36.5 1 26.9 2 31.6
FTA/FGA: 45.4 1 36.9 6 40.8
Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 33.9 6 41.8 10 34.4
2P%: 46.1 7 46.2 5 48.5
FT%: 75.6 1 67.7 1 69.7
Block%: 7.6 2 6.6 8 9.8
Steal%: 9.8 9 7.1 9 9.1

When Xavier has the ball

Category Xavier
Offense		 Providence
Defense		 D-I Avg
Efficiency 111.4 3 106.6 7 104.2
Avg. Poss Length 17.2 0 17.6 0 17.8
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 52.0 4 49.7 6 49.5
Turnover %: 17.3 5 15.5 8 18.5
Off. Reb. %: 33.4 2 29.6 5 31.6
FTA/FGA: 44.0 2 34.8 4 40.8
Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 34.3 5 33.1 5 34.4
2P%: 52.2 3 49.6 7 48.5
FT%: 74.8 2 74.1 7 69.7
Block%: 12.8 9 13.2 3 9.8
Steal%: 8.1 4 8.7 5 9.1

Game Preview

Road wins in the Big East are tough to come by. All Friar fans have to do is look at PC’s last road contest in Chicago when they struggled to pull out a win, even after a fast shooting start, against a depleted DePaul team. The Xavier squad that they will take on tomorrow afternoon in Cincinnati is currently their direct competition for 3rd place. A win tomorrow means the Friars would be 7-4 and have solo ownership of 3rd place behind Creighton and Villanova. A loss and their resume gets even more cloudy, as one of the big missing pieces is quality road wins, and Xavier would take over 3rd place in the conference at 6-4. The irony for the Big East is that this game could be another nail in one of these team’s coffins and could be a key reason why they end up not making the Big Dance. There is still time and there are more opportunities beyond Saturday but this game has big implications for both teams.

Providence is coming off a tough home loss against a surging St. John’s squad that got out to a huge lead (23 at the highest point) and held on for dear life as the Friars made a 2nd half comeback that fell short. Home losses hurt. But this one didn’t hurt as much since PC won the first matchup at Carnesseca Arena. A win tomorrow would wipe that loss out of fan’s minds and catapult the Friars back into a more comfortable position on the bubble than they currently hold which, as of yesterday’s ESPN Bracketology, is in the last 4 in category and playing a First Round play-in game against LSU as an 11 seed.

Xavier is also coming off a loss but theirs was on the road and it was against a team they are looking up at in the standings in Villanova. The Muskies held on for a while on Monday night as they went into the half only being down by 6 and getting the deficit down to 3 a few minutes into the 2nd half. But James Bell and the Wildcats proved to be too much to handle as Nova pulled away about 6 minutes into the 2nd half and never looked back. Bell finished with a game high 27 points while hitting 6 three pointers. The troubling thing for Xavier is the loss against Villanova marks their third L in a row. They are desperately looking to get back on track but they are currently a 9 seed in ESPN’s latest Bracketology release yesterday.

Now that the updates and implications are out of the way, on to this game.

Semaj Christon was largely contained the last time these two teams met on January 25th. He did most of his scoring damage in the 2nd half trying to come from behind. It seemed like when he wanted to get to the basket in the 2nd half he could do it every time and he played a much more assertive game. He didn’t do that much in the 1st half. He scored 16 of his 18 points in the last 17 minutes of the game. I expect Christon to have a pretty big game tomorrow and score 20+. Bryce Cotton should be able to negate most of Christon’s point by scoring around 20 himself but the big question for the Friars will be: who else will contribute? In the last meeting, LaDonate Henton went for 23 points and 11 rebounds before fouling out with just over 2 minutes to play. Kadeem Batts and Tyler Harris were both solid and the PC frontline was able to keep Matt Stainbrook under control. Jalen Reynolds was productive in only 8 minutes as he was able to score 6 points and grab 4 rebounds but he has been suspended since January 28th so he can concentrate on his “responsibilities greater than basketball”. PC needs to have Henton or Batts come out and put up a big game along with Cotton if they have a shot to steal this one on the road. Henton has traditionally played well in the Midwest against DePaul and his family has attended those games so maybe he will continue that trend in Cincinnati which is about the same travel time as Detroit to Chicago.

I know there has been a call for more Carson Desrosiers and less Tyler Harris throughout Friartown since Tuesday night but I just don’t believe that will be, nor do I think it should be, the case. Harris will get an opportunity to rebound from his poor performance against the Red Storm on Tuesday because, well there just isn’t anyone else walking through that door. Desrosiers will play solid minutes but look for Harris to start and get the majority of the minutes between the two.

I expect this game to be hard fought and be a bit of an old school Big East battle. PC will play well and keep it tight but I ultimately believe Xavier, who has had 5 days of rest, practice and preparation will hold serve on their home court. That makes Monday’s game at Georgetown all the more crucial for the Friars as they NEED to be at least 1-1 on this road trip heading into Alumni weekend to still be in the NCAA Tournament discussion.

Prediction: Providence 71 Xavier 75

Click here to watch the previous matchup between these two teams on January 25th at the Dunk.

Game Previews & Recaps

Rapid Reaction: Johnnies Get Revenge

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The Friars got behind early, made a run in the second half but then ran out of gas around the 5 minute mark and St. John’s held on to win 86-76.

Cotton had 32 points and 6 assists despite getting off to a cold shooting start and Batts played really well (15 and 10) all night despite having his shot rejected emphatically a few times early. Josh Fortune chipped in 12 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists. Tyler Harris didn’t play much and wasn’t really a factor when he did as he was getting beat on defense early and the St. John’s bigs were much more effective tonight than in Queens so Carson Desrosiers played heavier minutes than usual. CD played well down low and answered with a few blocks of his own.

St. John’s shot lights out in the first half and PC allowed a season high 53 points in the first half. Jakarr Sampson played a great floor game and couldn’t miss. He led the Red Storm with 21 points until D’Angelo Harrison (22 points) went on a personal parade to the free throw line as Ed Cooley opted to extend the game by fouling with about 1:30 remaining.

The 16 point halftime deficit which grew to over 20 at times in the 2nd half proved too much to overcome. As a Xavier fan said last night on Twitter after they fell at Villanova:

“Saturday just became huge.”

Ps: Students-proud of you tonight. You came out, stood up and were loud. Wasn’t that fun? Keep it up.

Game Previews & Recaps

Game Notes & Preview: PC vs. St. John’s 2/4/14 #pcbb

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Where: Dunkin’ Donuts Center – Providence, RI

When: 7:00pm

How: Fox Sports 1/WEEI 103.7 FM

Game Notes

Stat Review

In conference games this season, St. John’s is last in the Big East in FT Rate on offense (29.0) , likely because they seem to shoot so many jumpshots and “tough 2’s”. Also, the Johnnies give up the highest % of offensive rebounds in the conference (33.8%). They are the best at Turnover rate (20.2%), Block % (17.6% – nearly double the national avg), and Steal % (10.8%) though.

On the flipside, in conference games this season, Providence is leading the Big East in FT Rate on offense (47.3). The Friar offense pulls down the highest % of offensive rebounds in the conference (34.8%) and has the best Block rate (6.4%) and FT % (74.9%) in the Big East.

Game Preview

In the last matchup between these two teams on January 16th in Queens, PC got out to a fast start and then let St. John’s back into the game as the first half wore on. Ultimately, this would be a gutty performance by the entire squad but especially the man, the myth, the legend – Bryce Cotton. Cotton played all 50 minutes of that game including sinking the game winner in the 2nd overtime. Kadeem Batts played one of his better games of the year. He and Cotton worked the pick and roll nicely. Batts did most of his work on offense from the free throw line where he went 11/12. Hopefully Batts gets back to being aggressive and taking it hard to the rim because if he has another rough game, PC could very easily let this crucial home win slip away. There isn’t a ton of margin for error at this point in the season. The Friars need to take care of business at home, especially when they are nearly 5 point favorites.

Last game the group of Cotton, Batts, Henton and Harris accounted for 73 of PC’s 84 points or 87% of the scoring. Fortune and Desrosiers were the only other Friars to even score. Fortune’s only bucket, despite playing all 50 minutes, came just over 1 minute into the 1st overtime to tie the game at 72 and Desrosiers scored his 8 points in the first 35 minutes of the game but didn’t play much at all in either overtime session. It will be critical for the Friars to get production from at least 4 guys again tomorrow. I expect Cotton to put up around 20 points and Henton to put up around 15 points. After that, it’s kind of a mystery game to game. Harris played very well against DePaul on Saturday to rebound from a brutal game at Marquette on Thursday night. I think Harris will have another good game tomorrow and put up around 16 points. That gets PC to 51 points between those 3 players. Can Batts deliver 12-15 points? I believe he can and will. Fortune will try to do his best to slow down D’Angelo Harrison again but Harrison is playing much better lately as is the entire SJU team. Harrison led all scorers on Saturday with 27 points against Marquette. Chris Obekpa had 7 blocks against the Golden Eagles as well. This will be a different team than Providence saw less than 3 weeks ago. But it’s still a team coached by Steve Lavin and they haven’t really seemed to be able to get into any kind of rhythm on offense. They dribble the ball way too much and rely on guys like Harrison to create and hit tough shots. Many SJU fans complained about Lavin’s coaching during and after our game at Carnesseca and they had nothing but high praise for Ed Cooley.

The key to this game for the Friars will be to get Kadeem Batts involved early. In Providence’s 6 losses, Batts has averaged 7.5 ppg and only reached double digits once – the blowout loss against Villanova – when he scored 10 points in 27 minutes. In Providence’s 16 wins, Batts has averaged 13.8 ppg.

Prediction: St. John’s 65 Providence 67

Game Previews & Recaps

Rapid Reaction: PC gets back on track

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PC got off to a fast start and scored 42 points in the first half. Their defense left a bit to be desired though as DePaul had a plethora of open looks from 3 and there were a few too many layups. The lead at the half was only 5.

The second half was similar to the first except PC’s shooting wasn’t as good but they managed to never get behind. DePaul managed to tie the game at 62 but Henton answered to get them back up and never look back.

Cotton put a nice exclamation on this one with a breakaway dunk in the last 14 seconds.

Cotton led all scorers with 28 points and also had 6 assists. Harris played a much better game and Henton was his usual junkyard dog self adding 19 points and 6 rebounds. Batts was disappointing with early foul trouble and missing some layups but he did take a charge late and grab a few rebounds to close out defensive possessions at the end of the game. All in all, a nice rebound game after the gross offensive performance at Marquette on Thursday.

The Friars will return home to take on a St. John’s team that beat Marquette handily at MSG earlier today.

Game Previews & Recaps

Game Notes & Preview: PC @ DePaul 2/1/14

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Where: Allstate Arena – Chicago, IL

When: 1:00pm

How: Fox Sports Net (YES Network and other regional channels)/WEEI 103.7 FM

Game Notes

Game Preview

GoLocal Prov – Friars at DePaul: Getting back on track

Look for the Friars to get back on track this afternoon in Chicago. I think Kadeem Batts and LaDontae Henton will have strong days with Cleveland Melvin sitting out again because a of violation of team rules. The key for PC will be to not get into a hole early and the best way to do that is shoot better than 18%.

Prediction: Providence 69 Marquette 61

Game Previews & Recaps

Game Recap: PC at Marquette 1/30/14 #pcbb

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That was one of the most frustrating first halfs of basketball I’ve ever watched. 14 points is the worst half output since 2/5/02 when PC only put up 11 points in a half against UConn. It took PC nearly 13 minutes to reach double figures. The Friars also shot just 18% in the first half. As ugly as PC played, Marquette wasn’t exactly playing like a well oiled machine and as PC went on a 13-0 run in the 2nd half to get within 6, I remember looking up and realizing that Marquette had only scored 6 points in the first 9 minutes and change of the 2nd half. But PC just couldn’t get over the hump and come all the way back. The closest they would get was within 3 with 11:37 to go after Henton converted a 3 point play on an And 1. KMac did nail it though. https://twitter.com/KevinMcNamara33/status/429061973620178944   All around, no one on the Providence team played well tonight. Cotton scored 20 but had 5 turnovers and seemed to be rushing at times and also a bit out of control. He was not the only one as Harris only scored 3 points and had 5 turnovers against 0 assists. Henton scored 16 2nd half points after going scoreless in the 1st half. Batts looked out of sync all night. He was also on the ground a lot tonight and seemed very frustrated. This brings me to my next point – what the F were the refs looking at all night? This game had the feel of an old school Big East game where the players were allowed to commit 2nd degree assault on the court without hearing a whistle. It was that way on both ends of the court but it’s very frustrating when the emphasis all year has been on handchecking and allowing the offensive players to move freely with the ball and then you throw a wrench in things and allow the players to be all over each other and not even consider calling a foul. This is a different game if the refs are calling all the bumping and handchecking. One of the concerns I mentioned in my preview was that PC has struggled to shoot on the road and that they couldn’t afford to get down big early like they did at Villanova. Unfortunately that played out tonight and it wasn’t fun to watch. Additionally, PC had their worst free throw shooting game of the season going 10/17 (58%) including a rough 2/6 from Kadeem Batts. I was shocked to see that PC actually won the rebounding battle (40-37) because it seemed like Marquette was killing them on the glass in the 2nd half when PC was playing zone. All in all, the stats in the boxscore are pretty ugly for both teams but Marquette managed to fend off the PC run and do enough to pull out the win at home. PC really needs to rebound on Saturday at DePaul to split this road trip before returning to the Dunk on Tuesday to take on St. John’s who will be coming off a game against these Marquette Golden Eagles at Madison Square Garden on Saturday.

Game Previews & Recaps

Game Notes & Preview: PC @ Marquette 1/30/14

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Where: BMO Harris Bradley Center – Milwaukee, WI

When: 7:00pm

How: Fox Sports 1/WEEI 103.7 FM

Game Notes

  • PC is 4-12 all time against Marquette and has lost 10 of their 11 matchups as members of the Big East
  • Marquette has now played in 3 straight OT games after not playing any extra basketball in their first 17 games. They are 1-2 in those 3 contests
  • Todd Mayo has been stepping up his scoring of late and he’s been doing it in clutch situations. Of the 28 points he has scored in Marquette’s last 3 games, 17 have come in the final minute of regulation or overtime
  • Providence is looking for their 6th straight conference win for the first time since the 2003-2004 season. 6 is also the current record for longest Big East win streak in PC history
  • Line opened at PC +5.5

Game Preview

Based on my numbers this game should be a pick ’em but my numbers don’t take into account home court advantage, etc. The line has since moved down a bit to 4.5 or 5 depending on where you look but about 2/3 of the money is coming in on the Friars from what I’ve seen.

It’s been well documented and discussed during the 4 day layoff between games that PC has struggled against Marquette over the years, especially in Milwaukee. The Friars last win against Marquette came in January 2007 at the Dunk. PC hasn’t won at Marquette – ever. This is a Friar team that is focused and playing their game right now though. Marquette is a team that has been very up and down all year and has gotten inconsistent production from just about everyone on their roster. Some of their fans see this season as a lost year and think Buzz Williams should be focusing on the future already.

PC has only played 4 road games this year and has split the contest 2-2. The Friar’s biggest issue on the road has been their shooting. Granted their shooting hasn’t been all that spectacular at the Dunk either but they cannot afford to get into an early hole a la @ Villanova. They enter tonight’s game with an eFG% of 46.9 which is good for 282nd in the nation according to Kenpom. Not surprisingly, PC’s offense has had better efficiency numbers in their road wins than their road losses but a lot of the other stats don’t really present any patterns. Maybe that’s because of the small sample size or maybe it’s because this team hadn’t established their identity until recently.

The key to the game will be for Providence to play their game (duh). Cotton and Batts should continue to work the pick and roll and they should be getting into the lane and looking to score in the paint or get fouled (or both, preferably). Fortune will have to shut down Todd Mayo who has played pretty well at home this season. I think the X factor for tonight’s game will be Tyler Harris. He can provide another scoring threat for PC who may need that “other” person to step up and help out Cotton and Henton/Batts if those guys get off to a slow start and he may present some matchup problems/force Marquette to adjust their lineups. I think Henton will continue his strong rebounding numbers from Saturday when he registered his 22nd career double double (only 2nd of this season). This will likely be a grind it out game (Marquette is ranked as the best scoring defense in the Big East at 65.5 ppg) that is won on the glass and at the free throw line. That favors Providence.

Prediction: Providence 62 Marquette 60